Understanding Crime Rates by County: What the Data Shows

Crime rates vary enormously across the 3,143 counties in the United States. Some counties report fewer than 10 total crimes per 100,000 residents per year, while others exceed 10,000. Understanding what drives these differences requires looking beyond headlines and into the data itself.

We analyzed FBI Uniform Crime Report data for every US county to identify patterns, outliers, and the factors that correlate most strongly with crime. The national average total crime rate is approximately 1552 per 100,000, but the median is 1180 — meaning half of all counties fall below this threshold.

What Are Crime Rates and How Are They Measured?

Crime rates are standardized to a per-100,000-population basis, which allows fair comparison across counties of different sizes. A county with 50,000 residents and 250 reported crimes has a rate of 500 per 100,000 — the same rate as a county with 500,000 residents and 2,500 reported crimes.

The FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program divides crime into two categories: violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault) and property crime (burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft). Together, these form the total crime rate.

Counties with the Highest Crime Rates

The counties with the highest total crime rates in America are concentrated in a few patterns: urban centers with high poverty, rural counties with transient populations, and areas with significant drug trafficking corridors.

Counties with the Lowest Crime Rates

At the other extreme, many counties report total crime rates below 100 per 100,000 — nearly 25 times lower than the highest-crime counties. These tend to be rural, low-density communities in the Midwest and Great Plains.

Geographic Patterns in Crime Data

Several clear geographic patterns emerge from the data. Texas (6 counties in the top 15), Oklahoma (2 counties in the top 15), Missouri (2 counties in the top 15) are overrepresented among high-crime counties.

Population density is the single strongest predictor of crime rates at the county level. Urban counties with more than 500 residents per square mile have average total crime rates roughly three times higher than rural counties with fewer than 50 residents per square mile.

However, density alone does not explain everything. Poverty rates, unemployment, age demographics, and policing resources all play significant roles. Some dense urban counties maintain relatively low crime rates through strong community institutions and well-funded law enforcement.

What the Data Does Not Tell You

FBI UCR data has important limitations that every reader should understand:

• Reporting gaps: Not all law enforcement agencies report to the UCR program. Some counties have incomplete data, which can make them appear safer or more dangerous than they actually are.
• Unreported crime: UCR data only includes crimes reported to police. Studies estimate that roughly half of all violent crimes and two-thirds of property crimes go unreported.
• County-level aggregation: A county-wide rate may mask significant variation between neighborhoods, cities, and rural areas within the same county.
• Year-to-year noise: Small counties can show dramatic percentage swings from a handful of incidents. A single homicide in a county of 2,000 people creates a murder rate of 50 per 100,000 — higher than any major city.

Methodology

All crime data on CrimeByCounty comes from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program (2022 data year), supplemented by County Health Rankings (2024) where FBI data is incomplete. Crime rates are per 100,000 residents. Safety scores use percentile-rank methodology on a 0-100 scale where 100 is safest. Counties without sufficient data receive a default score and are flagged accordingly.